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Table 3 Regressions of forecast accuracy

From: Major government customer and management earnings forecasts

  Whole sample Subsamples
Model 1 Model 2 Negative surprise Match Positive surprise
Intercept 17.119*** 17.593*** 17.381** 7.173 23.032***
(2.97) (2.82) (2.49) (0.99) (2.68)
GOV −2.789* −2.051 −3.676** −0.982 −2.257
(−1.84) (−1.49) (−2.13) (− 0.57) (− 0.92)
BMR 11.070*** 9.539*** 10.223** 14.931** 10.754**
(3.73) (3.32) (2.48) (2.37) (2.40)
ROA −16.721 −15.311 −26.710** 7.079 −13.402
(−1.58) (−1.52) (− 1.96) (0.59) (− 1.03)
SIZE −1.154* −0.990 −0.750 −0.848 −2.190***
(−1.91) (−1.61) (−0.98) (− 1.15) (−2.63)
RETVOL 12.591 11.550 −63.208 61.684 70.626
(0.18) (0.15) (−0.83) (0.82) (0.65)
LOSS 2.693 2.991* 4.175** −0.029 6.777
(1.60) (1.78) (2.08) (−0.01) (1.42)
GROWTH 0.668 −1.908 0.757 1.285 2.120
(0.22) (−0.65) (0.26) (0.38) (0.35)
LEV 6.572 5.893 7.311 3.454 7.660
(1.16) (1.11) (1.19) (0.57) (1.15)
AGE −0.425 −1.080 −0.815 0.546 0.298
(−0.50) (−1.34) (−0.92) (0.56) (0.21)
Industry FE No Yes No No No
Year FE No Yes No No No
Clustered error Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
No. of obs. 1,149 1,149 578 282 289
Adj. R2 0.145 0.174 0.138 0.155 0.182
  1. Notes: *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001