Table 3 Regressions of forecast accuracy
From: Major government customer and management earnings forecasts
Whole sample | Subsamples | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Model 1 | Model 2 | Negative surprise | Match | Positive surprise | |
Intercept | 17.119*** | 17.593*** | 17.381** | 7.173 | 23.032*** |
(2.97) | (2.82) | (2.49) | (0.99) | (2.68) | |
GOV | −2.789* | −2.051 | −3.676** | −0.982 | −2.257 |
(−1.84) | (−1.49) | (−2.13) | (− 0.57) | (− 0.92) | |
BMR | 11.070*** | 9.539*** | 10.223** | 14.931** | 10.754** |
(3.73) | (3.32) | (2.48) | (2.37) | (2.40) | |
ROA | −16.721 | −15.311 | −26.710** | 7.079 | −13.402 |
(−1.58) | (−1.52) | (− 1.96) | (0.59) | (− 1.03) | |
SIZE | −1.154* | −0.990 | −0.750 | −0.848 | −2.190*** |
(−1.91) | (−1.61) | (−0.98) | (− 1.15) | (−2.63) | |
RETVOL | 12.591 | 11.550 | −63.208 | 61.684 | 70.626 |
(0.18) | (0.15) | (−0.83) | (0.82) | (0.65) | |
LOSS | 2.693 | 2.991* | 4.175** | −0.029 | 6.777 |
(1.60) | (1.78) | (2.08) | (−0.01) | (1.42) | |
GROWTH | 0.668 | −1.908 | 0.757 | 1.285 | 2.120 |
(0.22) | (−0.65) | (0.26) | (0.38) | (0.35) | |
LEV | 6.572 | 5.893 | 7.311 | 3.454 | 7.660 |
(1.16) | (1.11) | (1.19) | (0.57) | (1.15) | |
AGE | −0.425 | −1.080 | −0.815 | 0.546 | 0.298 |
(−0.50) | (−1.34) | (−0.92) | (0.56) | (0.21) | |
Industry FE | No | Yes | No | No | No |
Year FE | No | Yes | No | No | No |
Clustered error | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
No. of obs. | 1,149 | 1,149 | 578 | 282 | 289 |
Adj. R2 | 0.145 | 0.174 | 0.138 | 0.155 | 0.182 |